#set document(title: "6.1 Introductions", author: "Rachel Webb") #set page(width: 8.5in, height: auto, margin: 1in) #import "@preview/cetz:0.5.2" #set text(font: ("STIX Two Text", "Libertinus Serif", "New Computer Modern"), size: 10.5pt, lang: "en") #show math.equation: set text(font: ("STIX Two Math", "New Computer Modern Math")) #set par(justify: true, leading: 0.62em, spacing: 0.9em) #set enum(spacing: 1.1em) // room between list items so tall inline fractions don't collide #set list(spacing: 1.1em) #set table(stroke: 0.5pt + rgb("#c7ccd3")) #let BLUE = rgb("#183B6F") // brand navy — section bars + example/solution labels (white on navy 11.09:1) #let ORANGE = rgb("#A94509") // brand primary-700 — AA-safe deep orange for TEXT (5.93:1 on white; raw brand #F37021 is 2.94:1 and must never carry text) #let RED = rgb("#DC2626") // brand error-600 #let GREEN = rgb("#059669") // brand success-600 (decoration only; small green text uses green-text #007942) #show heading.where(level: 1): it => block(width: 100%, above: 0pt, below: 16pt, fill: gradient.linear(BLUE, rgb("#2C5AA0")), inset: (x: 14pt, y: 12pt), radius: 3pt, text(fill: white, weight: "bold", size: 19pt, it.body)) #show heading.where(level: 2): it => block(width: 100%, above: 18pt, below: 10pt, fill: BLUE, inset: (x: 10pt, y: 6pt), radius: 2pt, text(fill: white, weight: "bold", size: 12pt, it.body)) #show heading.where(level: 3): it => text(fill: ORANGE, weight: "bold", size: 12.5pt, it.body) #show heading.where(level: 4): it => text(fill: BLUE, weight: "bold", size: 10.5pt, it.body) #let examplebox(label, title, body) = block(width: 100%, breakable: true, fill: rgb("#EFF1F5"), stroke: 0.5pt + rgb("#CFDDF0"), radius: 4pt, inset: 10pt, above: 12pt, below: 12pt)[ #block(below: 6pt)[#box(fill: BLUE, inset: (x: 6pt, y: 2pt), radius: 2pt, text(fill: white, weight: "bold", size: 8.5pt, label)) #h(0.4em) #strong[#title]] #body] // rail = decorative left rule (raw brand token); labelcolor = AA-safe label text shade #let notebox(label, rail, labelcolor, tint, body) = block(width: 100%, breakable: true, fill: tint, stroke: (left: 3pt + rail), inset: (left: 10pt, rest: 8pt), radius: (right: 4pt), above: 11pt, below: 11pt)[ #text(fill: labelcolor, weight: "bold", size: 7.5pt, tracking: 0.5pt)[#upper(label)] #linebreak() #body] #let solutionbox(body) = block(above: 4pt, below: 8pt)[ #text(fill: BLUE, weight: "bold", size: 8.5pt)[Solution] #linebreak() #body] #let figph(msg) = block(width: 100%, height: 60pt, fill: rgb("#f6f7f9"), stroke: (paint: rgb("#c7ccd3"), dash: "dashed"), radius: 4pt, inset: 10pt)[ #align(center + horizon, text(fill: rgb("#889"), style: "italic", size: 9pt, msg))] // Standardize inlined figure sizes: measure the natural CeTZ canvas, then scale to a // consistent envelope (aspect-aware; see build_typst.py FIG_* constants). Unlike the // print preamble, dimensions are FLOORED: in an editor a user can trim a figure to a // degenerate 1-D shape (a bare line), and w/h or tw/w would then divide by zero. #let _STD_W = 3.5 #let _WIDE_W = 5.6 #let _MAX_H = 3.4 #let _ASPECT_WIDE = 2.2 #let _UPSCALE_MAX = 1.15 #let stdfig(body) = context { let m = measure(body) let w = calc.max(m.width / 1in, 0.01) let h = calc.max(m.height / 1in, 0.01) let tw = if w / h > _ASPECT_WIDE { _WIDE_W } else { _STD_W } let s = calc.min(tw / w, _MAX_H / h, _UPSCALE_MAX) align(center, box(scale(x: s * 100%, y: s * 100%, reflow: true, body))) } #show figure: set block(breakable: false) #set figure(gap: 8pt) #show figure.caption: set text(size: 8.5pt, fill: rgb("#555")) == 6.1#h(0.6em)Introductions A continuous random variable (usually denoted as X) is a variable that has an infinite number of random values in an interval of numbers. There are many different types of continuous distributions. To be a valid continuous distribution the total area under the curve has to be equal to one and the function’s y-values need to be positive. For example, we may have a random variable that is uniformly distributed so we could use the #link("https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Statistics/Mostly_Harmless_Statistics_(Webb)/06%3A_Continuous_Probability_Distributions/6.02%3A_Uniform_Distribution")[Uniform distribution]that looks like a rectangle. See Figure 6-1. #figure(figph[Uniform distribution graph: a horizontal blue segment at height 1/(b-a) spans between a and b, with dashed vertical lines dropping to open circles at a and b on the x-axis, outlining a rectangle.], alt: "Uniform distribution graph: a horizontal blue segment at height 1/(b-a) spans between a and b, with dashed vertical lines dropping to open circles at a and b on the x-axis, outlining a rectangle.", caption: none) Figure 6-1 We may want to model the time it takes customer service to complete a call with the #link("https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Statistics/Mostly_Harmless_Statistics_(Webb)/06%3A_Continuous_Probability_Distributions/6.03%3A_Exponential_Distribution")[exponential distribution]. See Figure 6-2. #figure(figph[Three exponential distribution curves for mu = 4 in blue, mu = 1.2 in green, and mu = 0.5 in magenta over x from 0 to 10; the mu = 0.5 curve starts highest near 2 on the y-axis and drops fastest, while the mu = 4 curve starts lowest and decays slowest toward zero.], alt: "Three exponential distribution curves for mu = 4 in blue, mu = 1.2 in green, and mu = 0.5 in magenta over x from 0 to 10; the mu = 0.5 curve starts highest near 2 on the y-axis and drops fastest, while the mu = 4 curve starts lowest and decays slowest toward zero.", caption: none) Figure 6-2 We may have standardized test scores that follow a bell-shaped curve like the #link("https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Introductory_Statistics/Mostly_Harmless_Statistics_(Webb)/06%3A_Continuous_Probability_Distributions/6.04%3A_Normal_Distribution")[Gaussian (Normal) Distribution]. See Figure 6-3. #figure(figph[Four normal distribution curves on a grid from x = -4 to 4: mu = 0, sigma = 1 in blue; mu = -2, sigma = 0.5 in green; mu = 0, sigma = 0.2 in red, tall and narrow; and mu = 0, sigma = 3 in cyan, low and wide.], alt: "Four normal distribution curves on a grid from x = -4 to 4: mu = 0, sigma = 1 in blue; mu = -2, sigma = 0.5 in green; mu = 0, sigma = 0.2 in red, tall and narrow; and mu = 0, sigma = 3 in cyan, low and wide.", caption: none) Figure 6-3 #figure(figph[Four overlapping bell-shaped curves centered at zero labeled d.f. = 50 in green, d.f. = 15 in blue, d.f. = 5 in magenta, and d.f. = 3 in red; smaller degrees of freedom give a slightly lower peak and heavier tails.], alt: "Four overlapping bell-shaped curves centered at zero labeled d.f. = 50 in green, d.f. = 15 in blue, d.f. = 5 in magenta, and d.f. = 3 in red; smaller degrees of freedom give a slightly lower peak and heavier tails.", caption: none) Figure 6-4 We may want to model the average time it takes for a component to be manufactured and use the bell-shaped Student t-distribution. See Figure 6-4. This is just an introductory course so we are only going to cover a few distributions. If you want to explore more distributions, check out the chart by Larry Leemis at: #link("http://www.math.wm.edu/~leemis/chart/UDR/UDR.html")[http://www.math.wm.edu/~leemis/chart/UDR/UDR.html]. === Very Important The probability of an interval between two X values is equal to the area under the density curve between those two #math.equation(block: false, alt: "X")[$X$] values. For a discrete random variable, we can assign probabilities to each outcome. We cannot do this for a continuous random variable. The probability for a single #math.equation(block: false, alt: "X")[$X$] value for a continuous random variable is 0. Thus “” are equivalent to “≤” and “≥.” In other words, #math.equation(block: true, alt: "P open parenthesis a ≤ X ≤ b close parenthesis equals P open parenthesis a less than X less than b close parenthesis equals P open parenthesis a ≤ X less than b close parenthesis equals P open parenthesis a less than X ≤ b close parenthesis")[$P ( a ≤ X ≤ b ) = P ( a < X < b ) = P ( a ≤ X < b ) = P ( a < X ≤ b )$] since there is no area of a line. We now will look at some specific models that have been found useful in practice. Consider an experiment that consists of observing events in a certain time frame, such as buses arriving at a bus stop or telephone calls coming into a switchboard during a specified period. It may then be of interest to place a probability distribution on the actual time of occurrence. In this section, we will tell you which distribution to use in the question.